Ukraine 2023

Yesterday Zelenski held his end-of-year end speech:

Zelensky says Russia made no military gains in 2023, expresses faith in U.S. - Washington Post

Although Putin has claimed that Russian forces are now improving their positions virtually everywhere along the line of contact, Zelensky insisted that the invaders had made no military advances in 2023. “With regard to the battlefield, Russia hasn’t achieved any of its goals this year,” he said.

... to which Olga Bazove replies:

Zelensky: Russia has not achieved any results for 2023

Russia:
January 7: Podgorodnoye
January 10: Soledar
January 11: Opytnoe
January 16: Sol’ station
January 19: Kleshcheevka
January 21: Krasnopolye
February 1: Sacco and Vanzetti
February 2: Nikolaevka
February 12: Krasnopolye
February 17: Paraskovievka
February 24: Berkhovka
February 25: Yagodnoye
March 8: eastern part of Bakhmut
March 9: Dubovo-Vasilievka
March 15: Zaliznyanskoye
April 2: Russian flag in the center of Bakhmut
May 20: Bakhmut
May-November: gains more territory than Ukraine during the counteroffensive while being on defense.
December 12: Marinka
December 2023: Avdeevka loading.

Admittedly, the difference on the map isn’t that great:

Jan 1 2023

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However the task given to the Russian troops was not to take land, but to demilitarize and denazify Ukraine.

In that aspect the numbers, given by the Russian Minister for Defense Sergei Shoigu, are indeed impressive:

On June 4, the Ukrainian armed forces launched a large-scale counter-offensive, prepared by their foreign curators. Without breaking through our troops’ tactical defence zone, the enemy was stopped and suffered colossal losses: 159,000 military personnel killed and wounded, 121 aircraft, 23 helicopters, 766 tanks, including 37 Leopards, and 2,348 armoured vehicles of various classes, including 50 Bradleys. Apparently, this is why we still do not see the American Abrams, delivered several months ago, on the battlefield.

Since the beginning of the special operation, the losses of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have exceeded 383,000 military personnel killed and wounded, as well as 14,000 tanks, infantry fighting vehicles and armoured personnel carriers, 553 aircraft and 259 helicopters, 7,500 guns, field artillery and multiple launch rocket systems.

Ukraine has had nine mobilisation waves, with the tenth wave currently underway where even individuals only partially fit for service are being called up.

Mercenaries that had been recruited since the beginning of the special military operation have, for the most part, been taken out. Over 5,800 fighters have been neutralised, including 1,427 from Poland, 466 from the United States, and 344 from Great Britain. Within Ukraine, 103 military criminals displaying particular cruelty have been eliminated.

Such battlefield numbers are of course never correct. But give or take some 10 to 15% they are still large. They are also somewhat confirmed by the new mobilization request from the Ukrainian military:

Ukraine considers proposal by army to mobilise another 500,000 for war

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday the military had proposed mobilising 450,000-500,000 more Ukrainians into the armed forces in what would mark a dramatic step up of Kyiv’s war with Russia.

The Ukrainian leader told his end-of-year news conference it was a "highly sensitive" issue that the military and government would discuss before deciding whether to send the proposal to parliament.

Zelenskiy said he wanted to hear more arguments in favour of mobilising the additional people before backing such a move.

"This is a very serious number," he said.

Ukraine is left with some 20 million inhabitants. More than two-third of those are pensioners and women. Zelenski has rejected attempts to mobilize women as the social consequences and protests would be too large. But he has not enough men and money left to mobilize another half-million men (machine translation):

Zelensky said that the command offers to draft up to half a million people into the army, but he did not approve this figure for two reasons.

The first is the lack of proposals for the rotation and demobilization of those who have been in the trenches for a long time. The second - mobilization in the format proposed by the military will cost the budget an additional 500 billion hryvnias and there is no understanding yet where to get them.

The only sensible alternative for Ukraine is to give up, and to negotiate with Russia. Zelenski though is still unwilling to do that.

But it may well be that others decided to make the decision for him:

Kit Klarenberg @KitKlarenberg - 14:03 UTC · Dec 20, 2023

An hour and a half ago, a Russian "Special Flight Squadron" plane landed in Washington DC. They are used by Kremlin officials. It set out from St. Petersburg. You do the math.

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The plane actually flew from Moscow via St. Petersburg to Washington DC. I wonder who was on board ...

However the signs that the war, and the views on it, have changed are unmistakable:

"It’s over":